Sunday, February 3, 2008

Why John McCain Is Unbeatable

Not since Ronald Reagan has any Republican been in the position to change the American political landscape as fundamentally as John McCain stands to do in November. His candidacy will be the catalyst that completes the migration of all remaining white Southern Democrats to the GOP. The first wave of converts, the Reagan Democrats, were more ideological and conservative than the McCain Democrats. Many who crossed party lines in the early 1980s had been Wallace Democrats before they became Reagan Democrats. This new group is different. McCain will attract moderate and even left of center Democrats who are not quite ready to support either a socialist (Hillary) or a Socialist (Obama). Their lite liberalism has more in common with McCain's lite conservatism than with the 1960s radicalism of their own party's candidates. Critics will no doubt attribute their crossing of party lines to issues of race or gender and that may indeed be a factor in some cases. The same phenomenon might have been seen in reverse if Colin Powell, another lite Republican, was the candidate instead of McCain. The truth, however, is that if it had been any woman but Hillary and any black but Obama most white Southern Democrats would have supported them against a conservative zealot.

As for the zealots who cannot see their way to supporting McCain because his conservatism is not as pure as they would want, they will have the choice of sitting out this election or voting for McCain anyway, since, clearly, they will not support Hillary or Obama regardless of the infantile threats of some prominent and obscure pundits to do so, which, if sincere, would put them out of the conservative mainstream and make them bigger renegades than the man they claim to detest.

If conservative voters desert the GOP because McCain is the candidate, their absence will be more than offset by the desertion of Democratic Party's base if Obama is not his party's nominee for president. This prospect, or Doomsday's scenario, has the entire Democratic establishment in a panic. Ted Kennedy, although he knows perfectly well that Hillary will be the standard bearer in November, expects it and is relieved by it, nonetheless is supporting Obama to preempt a mass defection of blacks from the party. I suspect that he is doing so with Hillary's approval if not Bill's. Now, more than ever before, the Democratic Party must at least seem inclusive of blacks. They are hopeful that Obama's endorsement by the dean of liberals, the heiress of Camelot and other Democrats from its matted glory days will convince African-Americans that they still do have a stake in the party, that it is not a party dominated by old white liberals (male and female) who know what is best for them though they have been less than vocal in recent years in support of their interests.

By no possible calculation could John McCain lose in November, and this is indeed remarkable. Little credit is owed to him personally and even less to Bush who has done as much as any sitting president can do to insure that his party gets voted out of office. It is, rather, a happy confluence of events and the peculiar predicament in which the Democratic Party finds itself which will get John MacCain elected president.

32 comments:

Fantomas said...

Usually yo dont see a party winning three elections in a row.. It is just a matter of fact..Having a candidate like Mc Cain who is very beatable does not help the Republicans

Carlos Miller said...

Did you hear that right-wing pundit Ann Coulter announced she would campaign for Hillary Clinton if John McCain wins the nomination?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuTqgqhxVMc&eurl=http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2008/02/ann_coulter_hillary_clintoncam.html

Calm Bobby said...

Coulter is a marketing guru. She must have a book coming out soon.

Manuel A.Tellechea said...

Carlos:

Ann Coulter would be doing Hillary no favor by campaigning for her.

Manuel A.Tellechea said...

fantomas:

It has happened before:

Reagan-Reagan-Bush I (Republicans)

Roosevelt-Roosevelt-Roosevelt-Truman (Democrats)

Harding-Coolidge-Hoover (Republicans)

McKinley-Theo. Roosevelt-Taft (Republicans)

Lincoln-Lincoln-Grant-Grant-Hayes-Garfield (Republicans)

Jefferson-Madison-Monroe-J.Q. Adams (Democratic-Republican Party)

CorgiGuy said...

You can add Maria Shriver (arnold's wife ) to the list of kennedy's supporting obama.

The voter turnout does not support your assertion. Look at the total vote so far for democrats vs republicans, also look at the independent they are voting democrats.

Fantomas said...

Reagan -Reagan _Bush

Bush era el Vicepresidente

Manuel A.Tellechea said...

fantomas:

George W.'s daddy was president too.

Manuel A.Tellechea said...

corgiguy:

McCain will prevail not because he is popular but because Hillary is not.

CorgiGuy said...

MAT, what's more unpopular hillary or the iraq war. The majority of americans ( 60%-70% ) want out of iraq now, that's why the republicans lost congreSs in 2006. mccain's is rhetoric is 100 more years, win, win, win. If he wasn't so invested in iraq i would agree with your assesment.

Manuel A.Tellechea said...

corgiguy:

Here's a prediction: If Bin Laden hasn't been captured or killed by July, the troops come home by October.

CorgiGuy said...

MAT, that my change things a bit, it would have to be a real withdrawal, the bushies have 0 credibility.

Don't forget the economy, there's alot people loosing their homes, unemployment is up, wages are not keeping up. Alot anger out there specially here in the west.

There's 3 other factors that need to considered, the latino vote, new-voters ( age 19-29 ) and the western states. This Tuesday we will have a better clue as to where things are at. Here in CA the latest poll shows obama tied with Billary.

Like i said i have no horse in this race, i'm facinated by the political drama. i'll know better after tuesday.

Fantomas said...

Obama is ahead in California polls

I prefer Obama over hilary

period

Manuel A.Tellechea said...

fantomas:

You have lost your mind (again). Worse than a moth-eaten 'Sixties radical is an ingenue who believes that the Kennedy era was the apex of American history and promises to return us there again. God help us all!

On January 21, 2008 (at the latest) Barack Obama will commence negotiations with the Castro regime without prior conditions, which means that they could be torturing a prisoner in the next your room and Obama couln't care less.

How low you have fallen, fantomas, to even consider supporting Obama! Perhaps you should admit yourself again to The Madhouse. Your recent skirmishes with the Babalunians have obviously unhinged you. This is not work for children (neither is the presidency of the United States).

CorgiGuy said...

MAT, I detect a bit of racial prejudice in your dislike for the senator of illionois.

If the choice is between hillary and obama is the man. There i go out of the closeT into the MADHOUSE!

Fantomas said...

If the choice is between hillary and obama is the man. There i go out of the closeT into the MADHOUSE!

Rigth on..

corgi that was what i meant ..of the two..i rather have Obama over hilary

Of curse Obama is fidel top choice, but at least Obama said he is willing to talk with Raul UNLESS CUBA MAKE SUBSTANCIAL DEMOCRATIC REFORMS.... OBAMA SAID THAT AND FANTOMAS APPROVES IT

Manuel A.Tellechea said...

corgiguy:

If I am "prejudiced" against Obama, then I am "prejudiced" against the black and white races. And the Red Indians, too, from which Obama also claims to be descended.

If Obama were Tiger Woods, I would have all the races covered.

Manuel A.Tellechea said...

fantomas & corgiguy:

So the two of you are in a closet with Obama?

Longtime readers of this blog will not be surprised.

Fantomas said...

Other cuban freedom figthers no te equivoques, ven en Obama la persona que podria break the impasse

http://rafaelmartel.com/

Fantomas said...

So the two of you are in a closet with Obama?


Manuel Iam not with Obama

Si el es electo Iam with him because he will be my President, your President

y ahora te hago un copy and paste de mi propia autoria in an earlier post I wrote

La blogosfera cubana en el exilio se ha pronunciado por la debacle en el Partido Republicano y la Victoria de Big Mac. A esos compatriotas solo les digo paren de llorar ya. De lamentarse que no exista un Ronald Reegan en estos tiempos. El señor Mc Cain ha demostrado su capacidad, su heroismo y deseo de echar este pais hacia adelante.

Debemos trabajar todos los Cubanos Libres dignos para hacerle ver a Mc Cain que con la dictadura no se negocia y que necesitamos de su ayuda para acabar con aquello
Ese debe ser nuestro afan de lucha. No lloriqueos ni pataletas

En el lado "izquierdo" de la ecuacion hoy observe a un Obama espectacular. Señores estamos siendo testigos de un futuro Presidente. No se si sera ahora o un poquito mas tarde. El debate de California de hoy lo gano a su antojo. Barrio el piso con Hilary. Demostro una paz y una tranquilidad inmensa. Una seguridad y una sonrisa que cautivaran a una nacion el proximo Noviembre.

Debemos trabajar todos los Cubanos Libres dignos para hacerle ver al Señor Obama que con la dictadura no se negocia y que necesitamos de su ayuda para acabar con aquello. Ese debe ser nuestro afan de lucha. No lloriqueo ni pataletas

Manuel A.Tellechea said...

fantomas:

Your comments on McCain are sound.

Your comments on Obama read like the preadolescent unbosomings of an infatuated schoolgirl, except that she at least has the sense to confine her thoughts to her diary.

Agustin Farinas said...

Fantomas,
I guess you see what you want to see. I have a diffrent opinion of the debate in California. Obama did not sweep the floor with Hillary as you said. The debate was civilized and everyone one of the debaters scored their points. I don't think you can say that Obama swept anyone from the floor. But after reading your comments ref. Obama, I think you you need to lay off the Heinekens and maybe you can come away with a different take on the debates. If you prefer Obama over Hillary that is your privilege, but I don't like either one of those two clowns.

CorgiGuy said...

FANTOMAS, your post makes sense

MAT, I have been researching obama's rhetoric for over a month, here some blog postings giving some of the reasons why i like the senator.
Obama the Libertarian
Republicans for Obama.
Latin America for Obama
Europe for Obama

Manuel A.Tellechea said...

corgiguy:

"Republicans for Obama?"

One is the loneliest number.

Fantomas said...

Your comments on Obama read like the preadolescent unbosomings of an infatuated schoolgirl, except that she at least has the sense to confine her thoughts to her diary.


Who is da Girl Mat, dime?

Manuel A.Tellechea said...

corgiguy:

So the lone Republican supporting Obama is Susan Eisenhower, Ike's granddaughter?

As I just noted on your blog:

There must have been lead pipes in the White House in the 1950s-1960s because Susan Eisenhower and Caroline Kennedy appear to have consumed a great deal of contaminated water as children.

CorgiGuy said...

MAT, opinions are likes noses everbody has one.

What about morning joe scarborough and collin powell are they drinking that water too?

Manuel A.Tellechea said...

corgiguy:

Do you mean Fidel Castro's great admirer, Colin Powell, who cooed about Castro's "achievements" at a Senate hearing when he was Secretary of State?

The guy (mercifully) refused to run for president on the Republican ticket because he feared that he would lead the mules to slaughter, that is, attract black Democrats to the Republican Party.

Perhaps Powell will consent to be Obama's secretary of state and together they can lay the red carpet for Castro.

Fantomas said...

Perhaps Powell will consent to be Obama's secretary of state and together they can lay the red carpet for Castro.

Mat no te adelantes deja que Obama llegue y lo guiaremos por el camino de la democracia para Cuba

tiene que haber cambios RADICALES en cuba para que el pueda trabajarlo...pero debemos hacerle hincapie que no pueden ser cambios unilaterales

vamos a ver que ofrece la china loca

Tu sabes bien que Obama es el candidato de fidel

Vana said...

Manuel:

I can only hope you are correct, (you usually are) for I see a future with Hillary as president, most people I talk with are voting for her, specially women, I'll be shaking in my boots untill November

Carlos Miller said...

Never underestimate the power of a woman.

And especially never underestimate the power of a million women voters who believe that it's time for a woman to take charge.

Agustin Farinas said...

Fantomas does not seem to know that Obama's pastor the Reverend Franklin publishes a magazine for his Baptist Church (also Obama's) and last year their selection for "Man of the Year" was non other than Louis Farrakhan, a Castro lover, a Jew hater, whose desire for the destruccion of the State of Israel is well known, and whose recent trip to Cuba was used to denigrate and badmouth his country while staying in Havana during meetinmg with the Communist authorities. When Obama was asked about this little morsel, he said he stood by his pastor but regretted the choice for Man of the Year,all very convenient during an election campaign. But with a name like Hussein I find it hard for him to get elected in an American election.
President Barack Hussein anyone? I don't think so.